In recent years, the number of home runs in American baseball games has increased obviously, which is rumored by baseball circles to be related to the rising temperature. American researchers recently used data to speak, confirming that this statement has some truth. They estimate that global warming has helped major league baseball batters hit an average of about 50 more home runs each year.
Home run refers to the attack method that the batter runs through the first, second and third bases in turn and returns to home plate safely after hitting the ball from the other side. It is a very wonderful climax moment in the baseball game. According to NBC, from the beginning of American professional baseball in the late 19th century to 1993, there was only one season when each team hit more than one home run per game. Since 1994, only four seasons have not seen such a "grand occasion". In the history of professional baseball league, the top four seasons of home runs all appeared in 2017 and later years.
Researchers at Dartmouth College in the United States said in a peer-reviewed paper published in the latest issue of Bulletin of American Meteorological Society that they analyzed 100,000 games and more than 200,000 balls played by Major League Baseball from 2010 to 2019, and combined with weather conditions, stadium and other factors, they found that the probability of hitting a home run increased by 1.8% when the temperature rose by 1 degree Celsius.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average temperature in June, July and August in the United States has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius in the past 40 years.
According to researchers, the physics behind the relationship between temperature and home run is simple: when the temperature rises, molecules move faster and farther away from each other, thus reducing the air density, reducing the flying resistance of baseball and making it fly farther.
However, according to researchers’ estimates, from 2010 to 2019, climate warming made about 500 home runs, accounting for only 1% of all home runs. In contrast, non-climatic factors have a greater impact. Allen Nathan, a physicist at the University of Illinois, believes that the biggest factors are the ball itself and the stitching, as well as the batter’s physical quality, pitching angle and speed.
The researchers found that the impact of climate warming on home runs also varies from venue to venue. Home runs are more likely to occur in outdoor venues during the day than in dome stadiums where games are held at night.
The researchers also established a model to estimate the impact of different degrees of warming on home runs. Under the worst-case scenario, by 2050, there will be about 192 home runs in the United States every year, and by 2100, the number will increase to about 467. In a milder situation closer to the current climate change, by 2050, climate warming will promote about 155 home runs every year, and by 2100, this number will increase to about 255.
Source: CCTV news client