Today’s market is very pessimistic, with thousands of stocks falling, and many of them turn to big bears. It’s very interesting. I wrote two Weibo about the stock market today.
The first one was written at 09:53 in the morning.
Also broke 3000 points, people with short positions can slowly increase their positions. It is estimated that people in Man Cang have to cut some positions. Why will the same situation have different results? Because your situation is different, the core of deciding how to allocate assets is who are you? The subject matter is not important, what matters is who you are. What’s your situation? The core of wealth management is to identify people, not things.
The second one was written at 15:15 after the close.
Look at today in the next five years. The logic of buying stocks is to buy big, small and small, and not to buy. Then buy a certain amount to lock the warehouse. If it goes up properly, it can be won, and if it falls, it will be thrown away. Wait and play slowly.
This represents my view on A-shares. I once wrote an article about the reincarnation of the China stock market. I mentioned that the China stock market is essentially a reincarnation game, and a pile of junk stocks are constantly tossing around. We must persist in reform, on the one hand, we must liberalize control, increase supply, and let the market set prices, on the other hand, we must carry out the survival of the fittest, constantly increase supervision, and strictly supervise and comprehensively supervise violations of laws and regulations. Only in this way can the market slowly return to the logic of value investment, otherwise the profit of a pile of junk stocks is less than 10 million a year, and the market value is more than 10 billion. This kind of companies with obvious unreasonable value and price are full, and only idiots will go to this market to trade. So in the past few years, I suggested that everyone leave the stock exchange market, wait for the opportunity to come, and slowly wait for the return of value to enter the market.
On December 18th last year, I sent a message to Weibo that in recent years, I met a group of local tyrants who didn’t have much money. They all wanted to take over listed companies, borrow leverage everywhere, and then buy shells. In the end, they must die or live. Why? Because you want to pretend to be an asset fool, you can’t stand the scrutiny, and you are strictly supervised to death by the CSRC. If you don’t pretend, the stock price will not go up, and then the stock will continue to fall, and then it will explode and die. If you drag on doing nothing, you will die several times if you borrow so much money and drag on the interest. A large number of listed companies will end up with high leverage and die after the stock falls. This is the case for a large number of companies in the last two or three months. However, with the constant supervision and regulation of the market, the current market has finally ushered in the opportunity to enter the market. At this time, I personally feel relatively safe.
To be honest, today’s large-scale decline is the result of panic brought about by the escalation of Sino-US trade war. The problem is that several people have thought that Sino-US trade war has something to do with a large number of stocks. A large number of stocks are not only bad for the Sino-US trade war, but may still be good. The trade war is scary to listen to, and the media has made it terrible. How many are really clear? I personally feel that there is nothing terrible about the trade war.
Fighting is such a thing. Anyway, as long as you don’t fight, how bad can it be? There have been many such crises in China in the past 30 years. A few days ago, I chatted with the boss of one of the largest unicorns in China. He told me that it was terrible. Can China carry it through? I said it was terrible. In the early 1990s, when China banned China globally, it survived on its own. In 1997, when the Asian financial turmoil broke out, China didn’t accumulate anything. In 2004 and 2007, no crisis was bigger than the current crisis, so it was just as good. Isn’t the rise of any country like this? It is difficult and bumpy, and there is no smooth sailing. The problem is that fear can’t solve any problems. If you encounter some problems, you will worry about it. Which one will live or not? If China is beaten to the ground, to put it bluntly, if you are worried or not, you are all dead. If you don’t play the stock market, saving some cash can solve the problem, but you are all dead. If China hadn’t stayed down, you would have missed a lot of opportunities. This odds are definitely suitable for participation, just bet on the national luck.
If you think there is no chance for China’s national luck, it’s simple. Dig a cellar in the deep mountains and forests and hoard Chinese cabbage. Don’t think so much shit. American President Roosevelt said that the greatest fear is fear itself, which is quite right. I don’t know what a bunch of people are worried about. 50 billion dollars tariff? 200 billion tariff? Or $400 billion worth of goods to increase tariffs? What happens if you add it, and China dies? What if you don’t add it? China won? Without rhyme or reason. Therefore, this inexplicable fear that I don’t know why often makes people feel very scared. Under this fear, thousands of stocks have fallen, and many people are even more afraid. I really don’t think it is necessary at all.
So, when the limit fell in the afternoon, I naturally bought it in buy buy, and it was very cool and happy. Because I have never felt that the Sino-US trade war has anything to do with a large number of A-shares, it is purely a decline in excessive fear caused by emotional turmoil, or that emotions may spread for many days. So what, in this case, I think many A-shares have actually gradually produced investment value.
Today, 1,032 stocks have gone down, 886 stocks have a market value of less than 3 billion, 206 stocks have fallen below their net assets, about a few hundred stocks have fallen to the lowest point in history, and there are still many stocks with a record low trading volume. In this case, the investment value of stocks has obviously increased. I have always said that whether a company is good or not depends on the price. No matter how good the company is, it will not be good if the price is expensive. If the poor company is cheap, it will also be a good company. Xiaomi company is not bad, but with a valuation of $100 billion, idiots will buy it. A large number of stocks must have fallen out of their investment value after a continuous sharp decline. As long as time is given, these companies will gradually get out of their due value. In particular, there are fewer good companies that have been killed by mistake at all.
I picked some companies with high book cash and low debt, and I kept buying and buying, so I was afraid of nothing. Looking at today in the next five years, I feel that many historical accidents have given us a good opportunity to buy some good stocks. Anyway, I bought them myself. Of course, don’t buy them at one time and buy them slowly. The return should be good. If you choose bad stocks, I personally suggest that you simply make a fixed investment in the fund. The current index is below 3,000 points. I think the downside space is very limited, but the upper limit space is still very large, and the odds are very high.
Nowadays, the world is very flat, and it is particularly easy to get all kinds of media news on the Internet, so you can always get in touch with all kinds of financial knowledge, whether true or false or logical or illogical. A little thing can also amplify the survival of the country, so all kinds of WeChat official account, every day, China is going to die today, and China is going to collapse tomorrow. Trump is awesome and deified. Anyway, since the emergence of the so-called media, China has collapsed tens of thousands of times. The reality is that.
Crisis has always been a combination of danger and opportunity. There is nothing that is only bad, and there is nothing that has to be good. We should face up to the problem, but there is no need to expand it. In fact, we really don’t understand some basic logic in many things. For example, some time ago, many people told me that foreign exchange reserves fell below 3 trillion. What should we do? I’ll just meow and ask him, it’s none of your business to fall below 3 trillion light. What do you want so much for? He really said it’s none of my business? I said it has nothing to do with your hair, so why think so much. If you are not an economist, you are not a politician, and you are not the boss of the foreign exchange administration, it really has nothing to do with you.
Others say that the RMB has depreciated. What should I do to change some foreign exchange? I said you have tens of millions, but he saidno. I said that’s none of your business. If the RMB falls by 10%, you will have hundreds of thousands in your hand, and you will lose tens of thousands of dollars at most. The problem is that you will not fall. You’re still losing tens of thousands of dollars, so you have to do so many things for this tens of thousands of dollars. In fact, every day you hear a lot of messy and various economic news, which has nothing to do with you. If it does, it’s actually that everyone dies together. What you do or don’t do has little impact. It’s just a small wave in the torrent. You can’t change anything. If you want to understand, you should eat and sleep. This is reality. After listening to too much news, come on.
I also sent a speech in the afternoon, which was a speech for 16 years. The meaning of this speech is to ask everyone to stop, and not to be fooled into buying wealth management, PE, stocks and investments, because in the past few years, all these things have lost money. You might as well do nothing and stay quietly, otherwise you will move. When the real opportunity comes, you actually have no money to move. Look at me. Compared with many people who do things diligently and do stocks every day, they lose at least a lot of money. For those who don’t buy short positions in any stocks this year, you have basically outperformed 89% of the people, which is definitely the position of a stock god. The return on investment is often negatively related to the frequency of operation, because most people’s decisions must be wrong, and the probability of doing more must be wrong is higher. Just wait slowly. Wait for an opportunity, then go in, I dare not say that I will make money, but I will definitely lose a lot less than most people. I bought some stocks today, and I believe I will lose a lot less than most people. This is reality. Too many people listen to all kinds of reasons everywhere, never think for themselves, then they don’t know how to make money, and they don’t know how to lose money, and then they don’t know where the problem is until they die.
Finally, I would like to talk about my views on the future. I always think that the future will definitely be an era of internal appreciation and external depreciation. Of course, the depreciation rate will not be too large. The typical feature of this era is that the cash value will increase, and the external depreciation has little to do with most people who don’t go abroad. It’s none of your business to depreciate or not. Is it possible to inflate in a large area? Of course, it is possible. When inflation rises, the cost of living will rise. Will it, of course? This is what I said. In troubled times, no one is innocent. People born in any age should have consciousness in any age. Munger also said something similar, macro is what we have to bear, and micro is where we make a difference. Too macroscopic things often make it impossible for us to control our own destiny, and we can only do the details well. Life in the big era is mostly like this, just as people are like dirt and weeds, who can control themselves? Take control of your own destiny.
Therefore, betting on the national luck means that if the national luck wins, you will make money. If you lose, no one can escape anyway, so it’s not up to you to decide, so it’s no use thinking about it. Anyway, I never think about it. Therefore, I basically don’t consider this possibility of external devaluation. What I consider is actually how big it will be for our relationship in the case of internal appreciation. Many people say that our so-called internal depreciation and external appreciation in the past few years, I personally feel that it is actually not established.
There has been no large-scale inflation in the past few years, but asset prices have risen sharply. But everyone consumes food, which is related to people’s livelihood, and the price increase is general. So soaring prices don’t exist. However, the rise in asset prices is essentially an investment product, and it has a fluctuation cycle. So I don’t think that the sharp rise in house prices represents the devaluation of the currency. China’s real estate is hardly representative of residential use, but more of it is financial derivatives. Essentially, it is a financial product. Moreover, it is a wealth management product with rigid redemption. Please come and see in the future, this rigid redemption wealth management product will be broken. As a result, there is a large-scale loss of investment.
In reality, we feel that the probability of deflation will be greater than inflation. As a result, the internal appreciation of you and the external depreciation occur. Isn’t it because of the decline of investment products represented by houses, the breaking of rigidity of a large number of financial scams, and the default of a large number of bonds of listed companies that the liquidity is tense? Take care of the money in your hand, I believe it will become more and more expensive. In other words, the probability of internal appreciation is very high. At this time, whoever holds more cash will actually have more choices. In the current market, I personally prefer financial products that can ensure the safety of cash, and then gradually allocate small positions to enter the stock market with high probability and high odds. Expand the position little by little.
In fact, the last time the stock market plunged was just the third anniversary. At that time, the market was desperate and collapsed, but three years later, the market collapsed? Not the same. Okay? People panic when they panic, and they are extremely optimistic when they are optimistic. It is human nature to chase after the ups and downs. We have to learn from foreign capital. The market keeps going down, but foreign capital keeps hunting for the bottom. Last time, it was the same, but this time it was different. 234 stocks in China stock market were added to msci list, and a large number of stocks were listed in the passive investment system of funds, so the liquidity will be greatly strengthened. Therefore, the recent data can clearly see that foreign capital is continuously flowing in, and foreigners in the Sino-US trade war are all for us. It’s also quite interesting.